Blackjack Card Counting

Free Blackjack Card Counting Introduction
Copyright ® 2002 By David Belmonte. See David's site at Professional Card Counting

CONTENTS

No part of this publication may be copied or reproduced without the prior written consent of the author.

Disclaimer: The Author takes no responsibility for any losses incurred.

1. HISTORY OF CARD COUNTING WITH REFERENCE TO MAJOR BLACKJACK PUBLICATIONS

1.1 Roger Baldwin
Baldwin et al’s “The Optimum Strategy in Blackjack” (Baldwin et al, 1956) appeared in the Journal of the American Statistical Association, in 1956. This was first ever-published Basic Strategy. Player’s advantage, using this strategy, was 0.09% (Thorp, 1964.)

1.2 Dr. Edward O. Thorp
Dr. Edward O. Thorp, refined this Basic Strategy, including it in his 1960 “Fortune’s Formula: The Game of Blackjack” paper. Players employing it would enjoy a 0.13% advantage. Moreover, Thorp presented a winning strategy based on counting fives. Many interested people offered to finance a test of his Fives strategy. Two millionaires backed Thorp to the extent of US$10,000. However, they backed a new strategy developed by Dr. Thorp. Not his “Fives” strategy, but a more powerful one, based on counting tens. After thirty days, they had won $11,000. The system “performed in practice just as the theory on which it is based predicted it would.” (Thorp, 1964.)

Dr. Thorp revealed all the aforementioned strategies he developed in his Beat The Dealer book, first published in 1962. It sold over 500,000 copies. This book would change the course of blackjack history forever.

1.3 Lawrence Revere
In 1969, legendary Lawrence Revere’s book, Playing Blackjack as A Business, was published. He improved Thorp’s Basic Strategy. Presenting his Revere Five Count, Plus-Minus, Ten Count and Revere Point Count. The latter, was the most advanced card counting strategy available in all the literature, at that time. His book was unquestionably accurate and reliable, re-published in eight revisions. (Most recently in 1998.) Lawrence Revere won consistently playing Blackjack, eventually permanently excluded from every gambling casino in Nevada. Mr. Revere died in 1977, but remains unforgotten. His contribution was significant.

1.4 Professor Peter A. Griffin
Professor Peter A. Griffin also contributed substantially to the theory of card counting. His book, The Theory of Blackjack, remains the most advanced blackjack book ever written. (First published in 1979.) It is mathematically complex; yet highly useful for anyone. His elucidation of the mathematics of Blackjack, from card counting to playing multiple decks, rule variations, to consequences of card counting errors, are extremely accurate. He was the first to ascertain the overall casino advantage against typical Blackjack players. His book underwent four revisions. Mr. Griffin died in 1997.

1.5 Ken Uston
Ken Uston was another prolific figure, employing newly sophisticated card counting techniques, winning consistently. He disclosed his team methods, in minutia, in his book, Million Dollar Blackjack, first published in 1981. Players could individually modify a team approach, as detailed in Uston’s book, to arouse minimal suspicion. Furthermore, each individual team member’s income would be greater, by playing in a team, than playing alone. Thus, little suspicion and greater profits ensured the team approach remained widespread and popular. Additionally, Uston’s Advanced Point Count was one of the most powerful card counting strategies. He revealed it in his book. Mr. Uston further confronted Atlantic City casinos, by means of professional legal representation in court. The outcome was favorable for card counters. All were now legally entitled to play in Atlantic City casinos, without exclusion. This, of course, was significant.

2. CARD COUNTING

2.1 Basic Strategy
This is a set of rules governing when to take a card, split a pair (into two separate hands), double down (doubling size of initial bet, receiving only one additional card,) etc. This is very important. What you do depends on your hand and importantly, on what the dealer holds. For example, the dealer is very likely to bust (exceed total of 21) holding a 5. Therefore, if the player held 16, he would stand (not take a card.) However, if the dealer had a 10, he would be likely to make a hand. Therefore, holding 16, you would hit (take a card). One uses the Basic Strategy over 80% of the time. If one cannot accurately determine how to play each hand, then he becomes ineffective. Therefore, memorizing the Basic Strategy is essential for any aspiring card counter.

2.2 Underlying Principle of All Card Counting Strategies
A value is assigned to each card. Plus, minus or zero. Consider the following well-known card counting strategy:

2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	X	Ace
+1	+1	+1	+1	+1	0	0	0	-1	-1

Cards two through seven are assigned a value of plus one, seven to nine count as zero and all ten value cards and Aces count as minus one. Thus if a 2, 3, and X (ten value card) appeared, our count would be +1. We continue adding subtracting card values as each card appears, on the table. This “running count”, can then be used to ascertain approximate percentage advantage, at any time. When we have an advantage (+ counts) we bet high; disadvantageous times, we bet low (- counts.) We may only have an advantage of 2% or more, just 10 out of every 100 hands. Disadvantage, of about 0.5%, for the remaining 90 hands.

Suppose our low bets are $10, large bets are $60.

In each hour we gain 0.02 x 10 x $60, or $12 on favorable situations.

Thus, our net profit becomes $7.5 per hour, receiving 100 hands per hour. Of course, we would win more, if we bet higher.

® David Belmonte

3. RULE VARIATIONS/CUSTOMS WORLDWIDE

Advancement in card counting theory and increased sophistication necessitated important changes in Blackjack, at gambling casinos throughout the world. Las Vegas Blackjack rules and deck penetration is generally better than casinos anywhere else. Additionally, one has many outlets to choose from, in Las Vegas. There proprietors offer single and double-deck games. Most other countries however, only offer four, five, six or eight deck games. (Except Macao.) Although multiple deck games are inherently more disadvantageous, one can still find attractive playing opportunities. Consider a casino offering a six-deck game. Players may only double down on totals of 9, 10 and 11, may double down after splitting. Casino offers insurance and dealer must stand on soft 17. Further, the cut card is inserted one deck from the back of the shoe. This set of conditions exists in certain casinos outside USA. They are very attractive. Thus, despite introduction by casinos worldwide of multiple decks, to combat counters, the playing conditions are still favorable.

4. CASINO COUNTERMEASURES

4.1 Shuffling Up
Casinos worldwide dealing single double or multiple deck games may shuffle the deck(s) before the cut or burn card. If supervisors suspect a player of card counting, they may “shuffle-up” on him without warning, (even after just several rounds have been dealt.) Counters enjoying an advantageous situation, betting high may suddenly find this premature shuffling destroys it. The successful counter avoids the shuffling countermeasure by remaining undetected. He may visit the casino infrequently, playing during different shifts, camouflage his betting, adopt an “act”, etc.

4.2 Reduce Player’s Bet Size
Advantages in Blackjack are so rare that, when they occur, card counters must bet large. However, supervisory staff may simply disallow the counter to place high bets. Thus, he has little potential to make a profit. Again, arousing minimal suspicion is essential, so that you never encounter such countermeasures.

® David Belmonte

4.3 Permanent Exclusion
If a casino perceives that a particular Blackjack player’s card counting effectiveness poses a threat to their continued financial well being, they may simply exclude him permanently from the casino. (Known also as “barring”.) However, tactics to avoid this problem exist. Players barred, can simply play at any one of hundreds of other casinos available, also.

4.4 Cut Card Placement
Alternatively, casinos using multiple decks in Blackjack can eliminate a counter’s potential profit by inserting the card close to the front of the shoe. Ordinarily, dealers insert the cut card anywhere from 50% to 75% from the front. However, inserting the card just 30% from the front, makes consistent wins from the card counter extremely difficult! His advantages arise most frequently towards the end of the shoe. Without the opportunity to capitalize on these (usually) high advantages, his profit, dwindles. One may seek another casino if confronted with this countermeasure, play infrequently to be undetected, or adopt an “act”, etc.

5. REFERENCES

Baldwin, Cantey, Maisel, and McDermott. 1956. “The Optimum Strategy in Blackjack”. Journal of the American Statistical Association. Vol. 51.

Griffin P. 1996. The Theory of Blackjack: The Compleat Card Counter’s Guide to the Casino Game of 21. Las Vegas: Huntington Press.

Revere L. 1998. Playing Blackjack As a Business. Secausus: Carol Publishing Group.

Thorp. E. O. 1964. Beat The Dealer. New York: Vintage Books.

Uston K. 1981. Million Dollar Blackjack. Secausus: Carol Publishing Group.

® David Belmonte